Medium Term Review: 2008-2015
By John Fitz Gerald, Adele Bergin, Thomas Conefrey, Sean Diffney, David Duffy, Ide Kearney, Sean Lyons, Laura Malaguzzi Valeri, Karen Mayor, Richard Tol.
This Review is published every second year, providing a comprehensive analysis of the prospects for the Irish economy over a seven-year time horizon. Link to further publication details.
Some of the main findings of this Medium-Term Review include:
- The economy has the potential to grow at around 3.75% a year over the coming decade, despite significant short-term problems. When the current global economic slowdown ends, with appropriate policies the economy should recover quite rapidly. Even if current difficulties prove more severe than anticipated, the economy is resilient and a global recovery would still see it rebound. The prospect of continuing medium-term growth above the EU average is underpinned by favourable trends in labour supply and in productivity. While unemployment is currently rising, with a flexible labour market there should be a return to full employment. Despite current difficulties in building and construction, the economy needs continuing substantial investment in housing and infrastructure over the coming decade.
- The drivers of Irish economic growth are changing. Exports of business and financial services are a vital contributor to growth. Domestic factors, including fiscal policy and the labour market, now have an increased influence on competitiveness.
- Progress on environmental protection is likely in a number of areas such as acid rain and hazardous waste. The renewable target in electricity generation is likely to be met. With a plausible carbon tax - the cheapest means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions - Ireland will reduce emissions but still miss its target by a considerable margin. The EU targets for reducing landfill waste are also likely to be missed.
- Policy Implications. Structural policies, such as investment under the NDP, will play a key role in delivering on the favourable growth scenario in this Review. Developing good health care, excellent education, and a clean environment will be increasingly important in making Ireland an attractive location to live and work. In the future fiscal policy will need to be used to manage economic cycles more actively.
The MTR dataset (MS Excel file) can be purchased at a price of†€300.†Please contact Thomas Conefrey on 01 8632000 or email† Thomas.Conefrey@esri.ie. †