ESRI Research Seminar: "Using Linked Datasets to Estimate the Causal Effect of Physical Activity on Health"

Venue: ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2

Speaker: Brenda Gannon, University of Manchester

Following the legacy of the Olympics and Paralympics 2012, the Department of Health in the UK announced in 2013, an investment of £5 million in sport aimed at getting children and their families to get more active, as part of the Government’s plans to increase investment in preventative healthcare. It is estimated that preventable conditions such as stroke and diabetes cost the NHS £1 billion a year. So if we consider a result that suggests exercise activity even leads to a 1% reduction in poor health, their investment will be justified – our project aims to precisely quantify this effect.
In this paper, we provide estimates of the causal effect of physical activity on health and apply econometric models to a unique data set that we have created by linking individual level information in the recently available Understanding Society data set with local area level administrative data (Local Authority District). The Understanding Society data is a rich source of information on health and physical activity, and the local administrative data provides an array of information that can be used as instruments to control statistically for potential reverse causation in the econometric estimation of the effect of physical activity on health. This econometric estimation will employ standard Instrumental Variables models and moment-based methods (Generalized Method of Moments and Generalized Empirical Likelihood) and will take advantage of recent developments in the econometric literature to perform inferences that appropriately take account of the quality and number of the instruments. Thus, our study will provide rigorously justified econometric estimates of the causal effect of physical activity on health outcomes based on recent UK data, to inform the current policy debate about how to promote healthy living in the UK.