Predicting the Probability of Long-Term Unemployment and Recalibrating Ireland’s Statistical Profiling Model

On Wednesday, 5 October 2022, the ESRI will host the launch of a new study commissioned by the Department of Social Protection, Predicting the Probability of Long-Term Unemployment and Recalibrating Ireland’s Statistical Profiling Model.

This study provides the results from a recalibration of the statistical profiling model underlying Ireland’s activation system, the Probability of Exit (PEX) model. The PEX model is used by the Department to identify those jobseekers at risk of becoming long-term unemployed on the first day that they make their initial unemployment benefit claim. In undertaking this recalibration work, the study also identifies the key characteristics associated with long-term unemployment risk.

The agenda for this event will include a presentation by the ESRI covering the new study, a response by representative from the Department of Social Protection and a Q&A session.