Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2022

Considerable uncertainty surrounds international macroeconomic conditions with an increasing probability of recession in the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area. This uncertainty is also compounded by the growing possibility of energy supplies being rationed across Europe in the winter of 2023. The Commentary has a Box which discusses the risks to electricity supply in Ireland in winter 2022/2023. While the pace of consumption growth is moderating significantly, the domestic economy is still expected to grow robustly this year. This reflects both the contribution of modified investment and the strong performance of the traded sector. 

Modified domestic demand (MDD) is now forecast to grow by 7.5 per cent in 2022. Furthermore, the unemployment rate is set to fall to 4.1 per cent by the end of the year and the General Government Balance (GGB) is expected to register a surplus of 0.3 per cent. A Box in the Commentary assesses the impact of recent reforms on future corporation tax receipts.