ESRI Nowcast

Using data available through 16 November 2022, we provide an update to our monthly estimate of modified domestic demand (MDD) using the ESRI Nowcasting model currently employed to support the forecasting exercise in the Quarterly Economic Commentary.

On a monthly basis, MDD is estimated to be 2.2 per cent above its level from September 2021. Strong tax receipts, continued strength in the labour market and growth in industrial production are all contributing to growth. However, continued uncertainty in the global economy and elevated inflation rates have contributed to a decline in survey indicators, such as business and consumer sentiment, as well as slowdowns in retail sales. On an annual basis, growth for MDD in Q3 2022 is unchanged from our October nowcast (4.1 per cent). While the overall growth in Q3 2022 is strong, growth in MDD on a monthly basis has now declined for four consecutive months, indicating slowing activity in the domestic economy.

Nowcast figures for Q3 2022 include data available through 16 November 2022.