ESRI Nowcast (August 2023 Estimate)
October 27, 2023
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- Using data available through 24th October 2023, we provide an update to our monthly estimate of modified domestic demand (MDD) using the ESRI’s Nowcasting model currently employed to support the forecasting exercise in the Quarterly Economic Commentary.
- We estimate that MDD grew 2.6% year-on-year in August 2023. Due to a model update, we have also revised upwards our July 2023 MDD Nowcast to 2.9% year-on-year (from 1.9% as reported last month). Our nowcast suggests that month-on-month, August MDD fell by -0.1% compared to July.
- While August again saw increases in the price of both goods and services as well as an improvement across a number of production sectors from 12 months ago, there was a further tightening of financial conditions and a fall in tax revenue compared to August 2022.
- Based on data from July, August and partial September data, our nowcast estimates MDD for 2023Q3 to be 3.0% above its level in 2022Q3.