ESRI Nowcast (February 2023 Estimate)

Using data available through 17 April 2023, we provide an update to our monthly estimate of modified domestic demand (MDD) using the ESRI Nowcasting model currently employed to support the forecasting exercise in the Quarterly Economic Commentary.  

MDD in February is estimated to be 3.7 per cent above its level in February 2022. Continued resilience in the labour market as well as growth in industrial production, retail sales and total tax revenue contributed to growth in economic activity in February. While economic sentiment remains below its level in February 2022, it has generally improved on a monthly basis. Due to improvements across many key indicators, we now estimate annual growth in modified domestic demand to be 3.2 per cent in Q1 2023.