ESRI Nowcast (September 2023 Estimate)
November 21, 2023
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| Download PDF | 258.46 KB |
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| Infographic | 71.34 KB |
- Using data available to 20th November 2023, we provide an update to our monthly estimate of modified domestic demand (MDD) using the ESRI’s Nowcasting model currently employed to support the forecasting exercise in the Quarterly Economic Commentary
- We estimate that MDD grew 2.2% year-on-year in September 2023. This is down from the 2.6% reported for August 2023.
- While September again saw increases in the price of both goods and services as well as an improvement in consumer confidence from 12 months ago, there was a further tightening of financial conditions as well as a slight worsening of labour market indicators compared to September 2022.
- Based on a full complement of data from July, August and September data, our final nowcast estimates MDD for 2023Q3 to be 2.7% above its level in 2022Q3. This is down slightly from the 3.0% estimated last month.