Spatial scenarios of potential electric vehicle adopters in Ireland

Transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is among public policy measures to reduce carbon emissions from the transport sector in Ireland. While EV adoption rates are increasing there is broad scepticism about achieving ambitious national policy targets. We employ microdata on commuting behaviour and different assumptions on the profile of adopters and purpose of vehicle use, based on existing literature, to identify clusters of candidates for transition to EV in Ireland. We estimate that depending on the assumption 17% to 42% of vehicle owners could comfortably switch to EV. High density areas of potential candidates for transition to EVs are identified in specific urban areas such as Cork and Dublin cities.

We also find between 2 to 37% reduction in emissions from car owners based on the different set of assumptions we employ. While the per unit emission reduction in rural areas is higher, the aggregate emission reduction that can be achieved is higher in urban areas because of the higher density of candidates for transition in such areas as per our analysis. We show that apart from Dublin, urban areas are lacking when it comes to density of charging infrastructure.