ESRI Nowcast (as of 20 February 2025)

February 20, 2025

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Macroeconomics
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ESRI MDD Nowcast

Highlights

  • As of February 19th, the ESRI's 2024Q4 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 3.9% year-on-year, up 0.3% from last month's estimate. This is the final Q4 estimate and is based on October, November and December data.
  • Decomposing the key drivers of this month’s nowcast show that strong production output and tax receipts contributed positively to the estimate.
  • On the other hand, weaker consumption data compared to the same period in 2023 had the strongest negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 19/03/2025.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcasting is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy. The ESRI’s nowcast uses an econometric model with a series of real-time indicators to estimate MDD before the official CSO numbers are available.

Complied by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.