ESRI Nowcast (as of 24 March 2025)

March 24, 2025

Macroeconomics
See Publication
ESRI MDD Nowcast
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q320212022202320242025−505101520Year-on-year % change2.5%CSO dataNowcastModel fitNowcast of 2025Q1 Modified Domestic Demand (MDD)Based on Jan-25 data as of 24/03/2025

Consump.FinancialFiscalHousingLabourOutputPricesSurveyTotal−10123Percentage point contribution−0.4 p.p.+0.2 p.p.+0.7 p.p.+0.7 p.p.+0.4 p.p.+0.1 p.p.+0.0 p.p.+0.8 p.p.+2.5%DecreasingIncreasingNowcast totalComposition of Nowcast Estimate for 2025Q1

Highlights

  • As of March 24th, the ESRI's 2025Q1 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 2.5% year-on-year. This is the first estimate for 2025 and is based on January data only.
  • Decomposing the key drivers of this month’s nowcast show that strong sentiment indicators contributed positively to the estimate.
  • On the other hand, weaker consumption data compared to the same period in 2024 had a negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 23/04/2025.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcasting is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy. The ESRI’s nowcast uses an econometric model with a series of real-time indicators to estimate MDD before the official CSO numbers are available.

Complied by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.