Profiling the Unemployed: An Analysis of the Galway and Waterford Live-Register Surveys

July 04, 2005

News

04/07/2005

 

Profiling the Unemployed: An Analysis of the Galway and Waterford Live-Register Surveys

By Dr. Richard Layte and Professor Philip O'Connell (The Economic & Social Research Institute)

Embargo: Monday 4 July, 2005 at 10:30 a.m. Over the last decade economic development in Ireland has dramatically reduced unemployment. Although unemployment is never welcomed, the current economic climate means that the majority who experience unemployment do so for only a short period. However, a minority do experience difficulties gaining employment and this can impact seriously on their future job prospects and well-being. Since September 1998 the National Employment Action Plan (NEAP) has ensured that all those experiencing long-term unemployment receive help in reentering employment, but the NEAP process does not begin until the individual has been unemployed for at least 6 months. If a method could be found to identify the ‘profile’ of those who are likely to have difficulty finding employment at their initial contact with the Department of Social and Family Affairs (DSFA) it would allow the process of intervention to begin earlier, helping the individual to avoid at least six months of unemployment. This report details the results of an ESRI project which investigated the feasibility of developing just such a profile. If put into practice this would allow the DSFA to identify individuals in need of employment supports from their very first contact. Using a sample of the unemployed from the Galway Region Live Register the project found that around 85% of men who would experience long-term unemployment could be identified on their first day on the Register if the appropriate information were collected. This figure was marginally lower for women (73%) but still suggests that a national profile of the unemployed would be practical and beneficial.

 

 

  • The ESRI examined the feasibility of ‘model based’ profiling. This uses a statistical model based on previously unemployed individuals to identify the characteristics that are related to long-term unemployment. These characteristics are then used to construct a system to predict whether a newly unemployed person will remain on the Live Register long term.
  • Once a person is identified as having a high probability of long-term unemployment they can be targeted for employment interventions and/or training.
  • However, profiling is just the first step and is ineffective without interventions. Interventions should themselves have been shown to increase employability net of personal characteristics and should be tailored to meet the needs of the individual concerned.
  • Profiling is used extensively in the US where ‘Worker Profiling and Re-employment Services’(WPRS) have been mandatory since 1993. Australia has also used a profiling system since 1994.
  • Long-term unemployment has been associated with mental and physical ill health as well as detachment from the labour force and future employment instability. Profiling and intervention can prevent an individual’s drift into long-term unemployment and the damage this can cause.
  • Assuming that effective interventions are targeted at those identified, the research shows that profiling and intervention could reduce the inflow to long-term unemployment by 30% and lead to a saving of almost €30 million in the first year rising to €60 million in the third and each subsequent year.