Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2005

October 07, 2005

News

07/10/2005



Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2005

By Dr. Alan Barrett, Adele Bergin, Shane Garrett, Yvonne McCarthy
Embargo: Friday October 7th 2005 at 00.01a.m.

Some of the main findings of the analysis include:

  • Strong economic growth will continue for the foreseeable future. Economic growth as measured by real GDP is forecast to grow by 5.7 per cent in 2005 and by 5 percent in 2006.
  • Our growth forecast for 2005 is based partly on the large increase in employment shown by the recent Quarterly National Household Survey. While recent Quarterly National Accounts data might suggest a lower rate of growth, we note that the quarterly data is often volatile and subject to revision.
  • Consumer price inflation is expected to average 2.3 per cent in 2005 and to rise moderately to 2.5 per cent in 2006. The rate of unemployment is expected to average 4.2 per cent this year and next year.
  • Employment growth continues to be remarkably strong. However, the concentration of much of that growth in construction raises a concern about future developments in the labour market. Job losses in manufacturing and agriculture have been offset by job gains in construction and so unemployment has remained low. However, this cannot continue indefinitely and the possibility remains of future increases in unemployment for both Irish and immigrant workers.

A Press Briefing will be held at the ESRI on Thursday October 6th 2005 at 11:00am. Special Articles

This Edition of the QEC also contains two Special Articles:
Alternative Seasonal Adjustment Methods for Aggregate Irish Macroeconomic Data - by John Lawlor, Colm McCarthy;
The Quarterly Economic Commentary Forecasting Record 1994 to 2004, by Shane Garrett. EUROFRAME-EFN Autumn 2005 Report Also at this briefing, the EUROFRAME-EFN Autumn 2005 Report will be launched. EUROFRAME is a network of ten leading research institutes from nine countries in Europe and is led by the ESRI. It provides direct independent input for the European Commission through a bi-annual report covering macroeconomic forecasts directed on the Euro Area. The Autumn 2005 Report covers specific topics such as the impact of macroeconomic imbalances within the US economy for the Euro Area, rising oil prices and falling long-term interest rates.