Significant Housing Shortages In Greater Dublin Area Predicted

A Research Note, published today (Wednesday, 6th August) by the ESRI, summarises recent research on the impact of projected population change on housing demand at the county level.

The analysis highlights how varied the projected changes are across the country and the consequences for housing demand. It shows that, while demographic change implies a total of 180,000 additional housing units will be required between 2011 and 2021, the large number of existing vacant dwellings will reduce this requirement, by half, to 90,000 units.

Noting that there is considerable oversupply in many counties, the note author, Dr Morgenroth said:

“Of the 90,000 additional housing units required between 2011 and 2021, over 60 per cent (54,000 units) are needed in Dublin and a further 26 per cent are needed in counties Louth, Meath, Kildare and Wicklow. Thus the requirement for additional housing units is projected to be highly concentrated in the Greater Dublin area.”

He continued:

“Given that the total number of housing completions recorded in the Greater Dublin Area during the 2011-2013 period is below what is needed to meet demand, this will result in significant housing shortages in the Greater Dublin Area if the rate of housing completions does not increase rapidly.”

For further information on the research please contact:

Dr Edgar Morgenroth (Associate Research Professor, ESRI)  edgar.morgenroth@esri.ie

Notes for Editors
1.    This Research Note provides a non-technical summary of a Munich
Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) Working Paper titled “Modelling the Impact of
Fundamentals on County Housing Markets in Ireland”.

2.    This research is part of an on-going research programme focussing on the
residential  property market, jointly funded by NAMA and the IBF.