ESRI Nowcast (November 2022 Estimate)

Using data available through 23 January 2023, we provide an update to our monthly estimate of modified domestic demand (MDD) using the ESRI Nowcasting model currently employed to support the forecasting exercise in the Quarterly Economic Commentary.

November MDD is estimated to be 2.5 per cent above its level from November 2021. Over this same period, tax receipts have remained strong, the labour market has improved and industrial production has grown significantly. While annual growth remains strong, it has declined consecutively since its peak of 14.4 per cent growth in February 2022. On a monthly basis, MDD declined 0.2 per cent from October to November 2022. Factors contributing to this slowdown include the continued uncertainty in the global economy as well as persistently high inflation and tightening financial conditions.

Quarterly MDD is now estimated to be 2.4 per cent above its level from Q4 2021.