ESRI Nowcast (October 2022 Estimate)

Using data available through 14 December 2022, we provide an update to our monthly estimate of modified domestic demand (MDD) using the ESRI Nowcasting model currently employed to support the forecasting exercise in the Quarterly Economic Commentary.

October MDD is estimated to be 3.1 per cent above its level from October 2021. Strong tax receipts, continued strength in the labour market and growth in industrial production are all contributing to growth. While growth is relatively strong, MDD on a monthly basis has now declined for four consecutive months, indicating a slowdown in the domestic economy. Factors contributing to this slowdown include the continued uncertainty in the global economy as well as persistently high inflation. In October, we continue to see declines in survey indicators, such as business and consumer sentiment, as well as slowdowns in retail sales. On an annual basis, growth for MDD in Q4 2022 is estimated to be 2.4 per cent.