ESRI develops a new ‘Housing and Healthcare Planning’ model for residential developments in Ireland

The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has published new research funded by the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage that introduces a new Housing and Healthcare Planning (HHP) modelling tool developed at the ESRI. The HHP model combines information on healthcare demand and housing development profiles to estimate demand for primary care and acute public hospital healthcare that may arise from new residential developments. The model subsequently estimates the healthcare workforce and capacity requirements needed to meet this demand.

As housing developments differ according to a range of attributes such as location, size, and tenure type composition, results are presented using three benchmark development types that differ according to tenure type composition: i) Housing for All (HFA) development (30% supported renters, 20% private renters and 50% homeowners); ii) a public housing development (80% supported renters); and iii) a private housing development (90% private renters and homeowners).

Key findings

• The tenure composition of a new development, and by relation the demographic profile of that development, plays an important role in determining the level of healthcare demand and provision required in the local area in which the development is being constructed.
• Developments with higher rates of Medical Card coverage rates among residents, older resident populations, and larger household size increase demand for healthcare.
• We estimate annual demand for almost 11,000 general practitioner (GP) visits within a 1,000 home HFA development. Based upon current national demand to GP supply ratios, this demand would require 1.5 GP whole time equivalents (WTEs) to provide that care.
• Within a public housing development of the same size, total GP demand is estimated to be higher at over 12,000 visits per annum. This is largely due to higher GP demand among supported renters who, despite having a relatively young age profile, tend to have higher rates of chronic illness and higher rates of Medical Card and GP visit card coverage, and thus greater demand for GP care.
• We estimate annual demand for 300 acute public hospital inpatient admissions within a 1,000 home HFA development. This equates to almost 5 fully staffed inpatient beds being required to meet this demand.
• Demand for acute public hospital inpatient care is slightly lower in public housing developments as inpatient care demand correlates strongly with age, and supported renters have a younger age profile than homeowners.

Dr Brendan Walsh, an author of the report and Senior Research Officer at the ESRI said:

“Housing and healthcare are critical issues for policymakers and the general public. Coordinated planning to ensure that housing developments are matched with sufficient healthcare services, creating sustainable communities with secure housing and dependable healthcare is vital. The development of the HHP model represents the first attempt to quantify the impacts of building new housing developments on local healthcare services in Ireland. While this model presents results on primary care and public hospital care, future outputs using the HHP model will examine a range of other health and social care services. In combination, results from the HHP model will provide an evidence-base upon which to base planning for localised healthcare supply and infrastructure.”