ESRI Nowcast (December 2022 Estimate)

Using data available through 21 February 2023, we provide an update to our monthly estimate of modified domestic demand (MDD) using the ESRI Nowcasting model currently employed to support the forecasting exercise in the Quarterly Economic Commentary.

MDD in December is estimated to be 2.9 per cent above its level in December 2021. This growth is largely driven by continued strength in the labour market and industrial production. While economic sentiment is still down from December 2021, it has increased on a monthly basis. The improvement in overall sentiment can be seen in retail sales, which grew on an annual basis in December 2022 after six consecutive months of negative growth. Due to the stronger-than-anticipated activity in the final month of the year, we now estimate annual growth in modified domestic demand to be 3.2 per cent in Q4 2022.