Forecasting Female Shares of Employment by Occupation in Ireland

Sectoral employment forecasts for Ireland are produced using the ESRI medium-term macro-economic model. Past trends and expectation of the likely development of occupations are used to project occupational profiles within each sector. Occupational share coefficients are calculated for each sector. The trends revealed by these shares are analysed and summarised in linear or semi-log trend equations. The Projected Occupational files within sectors are then applied to the employment forecasts for each sector. A gender-based occupational forecast is obtained by means of a separate sub-model. This involves the projection of past trends for the share of female employment in different occupations. The female shares of employment are made consistent with the female labour force forecasts produced by the ESRI medium-term macroeconomic model. The forecasts of female shares of employment by occupation is illustrated with long-term occupational forecasts for 2015