ESRI Nowcast

May 16, 2024

Macroeconomics
ESRI MDD Nowcast

Highlights

  • As of May 16th, the ESRI's 2024Q1 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 2.3% year-on-year, unchanged from last month's estimate.
  • This is the final nowcast of 2024Q1 and is based on data from January, February and March.
  • Decomposing the key drivers of this month’s nowcast estimate show that industrial output as well as positive consumer sentiment relative to March 2023 contributed positively while consumption, mainly driven by a fall in vehicle registrations, had a negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 20/06/2024.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcast uses an econometric model with series of real-time indicator to estimate the MDD before the official CSO numbers are available. It is a prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy.

Complied by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.