Latest ESRI economic forecast expects continued growth in 2016 and 2017

March 16, 2016

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Macroeconomics
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  • GDP expected to grow at approximately 4.8 per cent in 2016
  • Initial forecasts for 2017 indicate that GDP will grow by 4.1 per cent
  • Unemployment is expected to fall below 9 per cent by the end of 2016 and under 8 per cent by the end of 2017

Today, 16 March 2016, the ESRI published its latest Quarterly Economic Commentary, predicting continued economic growth and declining unemployment in 2016 and 2017. Following growth of 7.8 per cent in 2015, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast to grow by approximately 4.8 per cent in 2016 and 4.1 per cent in 2017.

The headline rate of unemployment is expected to fall to 8.7 per cent by the end of 2016 and below 7.5 per cent by the end of 2017.

GNP, which grew by 5 per cent in 2015, is expected to increase by 4.7 per cent in 2016 and 4.3 per cent in 2017.

Commenting on the report, QEC author David Duffy (ESRI) stated, “Despite a growing level of uncertainty in global economic conditions, growth in productivity and employment in Ireland suggests robust economic growth. The last two years have seen domestic sources of growth increase in relevance, a trend that seems likely to continue throughout 2016 and 2017."

Co-editor Kieran McQuinn (ESRI) added, “Given the expected increases in personal consumption and investment in 2016, we expect the Irish economy to be quite near to its potential level by the end of 2016. In 2017, we feel that the economy will grow marginally stronger than its potential growth rate at 4 per cent."