ESRI Nowcast (January 2023 Estimate)

Using data available through 16 March 2023, we provide an update to our monthly estimate of modified domestic demand (MDD) using the ESRI Nowcasting model currently employed to support the forecasting exercise in the Quarterly Economic Commentary.

MDD in January is estimated to be 3.9 per cent above its level in January 2022. This growth is due to the strong performance in a number of key indicators. Continued resilience in the labour market as well as growth in industrial production, retail sales and total tax revenue contributed to growth in economic activity in January. Inflation remains elevated on an annual basis but declined from December 2022. Alongside improvements in inflation, economic sentiment improved in January on a monthly basis, yet remains below it’s level in January 2022. Due to improvements across many key indicators, we now estimate annual growth in modified domestic demand to be 3.3 per cent in Q1 2023.